After months of jockeying for headlines and attention by a gaggle of wannabe candidates, the real presidential election begins in Iowa on February 1, and it will be fast and furious until election-day in November. But you don’t have to wait all year to know the results.
You see, the other night when I stumbled home from one of those wild, naked-nude Key West drunken parties, I was disoriented and the whole house seemed to be spinning. Laying on the floor trying to hang on, I discovered it was not that at all. Instead, out of the clouds swirling in my head, the patron saint of elections, Saint Votimous of Pollestine appeared to me in a vision. She told me that God had called her in and told her to deliver the outcome of the 2016 presidential election to me, and only to me. Saint Votimous did admonish me that if I tell anyone else the election results in advance, then when I die I would go straight to Hell. But I figure that since I live in Key West, I will anyway, so what the hell. I am going to tell you the election results before they happen, but just you; so don’t go around telling others, unless you want to go to Hell, too.
So Here is What is Going to Happen …
Despite the polls that indicate Donald Trump is pulling ahead of Ted Cruz in Iowa, he is going to flop badly in the caucuses. At best Trump will come in third – but probably worse – behind Cruz and Rubio. The reason for Trump’s failure in Iowa is that those who support him do so out of anger, and that does not motivate them to spend the hours needed to participate in the cumbersome caucus process. In other words, people identify with Trump’s sentiments, but not with him as a person they will go out of their way to vote for. This weakness is not identified in most polls and this results in a false-positive for Trump. On the other hand, Cruz support is based on mind-numbing religious beliefs and mind-altering emotions that do inspire people to make the effort to participate.
Trump will brush off the loss by railing against the “asinine” process in Iowa that was intended to mute his supporters. He will also complain that he lost in Iowa because the people are stupid farm-hicks who flock to these crazy evangelical churches and then go home and get drunk on corn-whiskey.
On to New Hampshire
In the time between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary on February 9, the media will focus more on Trump’s loss than Cruz’s victory. The media talking-heads will argue that while Trump can touch the voter’s anger with government, he is not electable because people just can’t bring themselves to vote for him.
When it comes to New Hampshire, Trump has what appears to be an insurmountable lead in the polls, but in the run-up to the primary, his lead will evaporate. Trump will again fare badly. Not only will he lose the primary, he will trail behind Kasich, Cruz and Rubio. And even Bush will make a surprising showing.
After New Hampshire
Coming out of New Hampshire the quest for the nomination will quickly narrow down to a battle between Rubio and Cruz. The so-called “establishment” of the GOP will rally behind Rubio and not so surreptitiously attempt to crush Cruz. If you think Obama is divisive because he could not work with Republicans, wait till you see how Cruz is portrayed as a mean-spirited, iconoclastic ideologue who will be unable to work with either Republicans or Democrats; and it will be the Republicans making that charge.
On to the Finals
The Republicans will nominate Marco Rubio, senator from Florida, for president. For vice president they will pick John Kasich, governor of Ohio. The symmetry of this ticket will be obvious. Both are from states that are crucial for the Republicans in any presidential race. Another strength of Rubio will be his appeal to the Latino voter. Though inexperienced, Rubio will bring a clear generational issue to the campaign – the tired-old against the fresh-new.
Kasich is added to the ticket, not just because he is a popular governor of Ohio, but to offset Rubio’s lack of experience in government and national leadership. (Much the same way Obama added Joe Biden to his ticket in 2008.) Kasich has been in elected office for 35 years; for 18 of those years he served in Congress.
Hillary Clinton, after a bruising battle with Bernie Sanders, will be the Democratic nominee. Her campaign will be based on her experience and readiness for the office of president – as opposed to Rubio – in a complicated and dangerous world. For her vice presidential nominee Clinton will select Julián Castro the current Secretary of Housing and Urban development. Castro’s strengths are that he is from Texas (an important state in the election), his grandmother was a (legal) Mexican immigrant; he brings the youth (41) of a new generation to the ticket and could offset Rubio’s appeal to Latinos.
And the Winner is … Rubio and Kasich
So there you have it. I take no responsibility for this prediction. It is only in the sense of public spirit and duty that I pass along what Saint Votimous of Pollestine passed on to me in a vision – it is a message from God.